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23 May 2012 00:05 h
CAP NL600: AA facing reraise on turn
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Poker Pro
Poker Pro
9 December 2009 13:48 h
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Registered at 2005-12-08
Posts: 1889

Full Tilt Poker Game #16665892027: Table Jasperson (6 max) - $3/$6 - $180 Cap No Limit Hold'em - 16:09:09 ET - 2009/12/09
Seat 1: wicky_wawa ($202.30)
Seat 2: craz6dragon ($610.35)
Seat 3: Goodfella_84 ($759.80)
Seat 4: bjp1000 ($375)
Seat 5: JackDanielsPT ($805.85)
Goodfella_84 posts the small blind of $3
bjp1000 posts the big blind of $6
The button is in seat #2
HOLE CARDS
Dealt to wicky_wawa

ace of clubs ace of diamonds
JackDanielsPT folds
wicky_wawa raises to $12
craz6dragon folds
Goodfella_84 folds
bjp1000 calls $6

FLOP

king of clubs 3 of clubs jack of clubs
bjp1000 checks
wicky_wawa bets $12
bjp1000 calls $12

TURN

king of clubs 3 of clubs jack of clubs 10 of hearts
bjp1000 checks
wicky_wawa bets $24
bjp1000 raises to $156, and is capped
wicky_wawa?


Villain already won over $100.000 in the CAP games on Full Tilt
Flush
Flush
9 December 2009 18:29 h
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Registered at 2009-08-01
Posts: 347
I really hate it but I have to calll here. Only a min raise before the flop so he probly dosnt have you on AA.
the extra 1/4 that you make nut flush gives you a little back up anyway. Im worried about two pair but hey what can you do. I would like to say fold here but Im calling for sure and making notes for the next time in regards to bet size.
Moderator
Moderator
11 December 2009 05:16 h
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Registered at 2006-06-12
Posts: 2082
you have to put in 132 for a 360 pot, so you need 132/360=37%. You have 8 outs for sure (T of clubs could give villain FH), 4 outs for straight though you might split (not that likely since you have AA), and if he has two pair you have the 2 aces as outs and another 6 for a paired board. Maybe count about 12 outs, thats 25%. Add the fact that your hand is probably good somewhere between 10-20% of the times and you`ll win about 75% of those cases, you probably have about 35-40%, so its pretty close I think.

I don`t have pokerstove at the moment, would be interesting to see what that would give us.
Poker Pro
Poker Pro
12 December 2009 05:37 h
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Registered at 2005-12-08
Posts: 1889
I thought it was close, but still don't see how I can ever fold this

Full Tilt Poker Game #16665892027: Table Jasperson (6 max) - $3/$6 - $180 Cap No Limit Hold'em - 16:09:09 ET - 2009/12/09
Seat 1: wicky_wawa ($202.30)
Seat 2: craz6dragon ($610.35)
Seat 3: Goodfella_84 ($759.80)
Seat 4: bjp1000 ($375)
Seat 5: JackDanielsPT ($805.85)
Goodfella_84 posts the small blind of $3
bjp1000 posts the big blind of $6
The button is in seat #2
HOLE CARDS
Dealt to wicky_wawa

ace of clubs ace of diamonds
JackDanielsPT folds
wicky_wawa raises to $12
craz6dragon folds
Goodfella_84 folds
bjp1000 calls $6

FLOP

king of clubs 3 of clubs jack of clubs
bjp1000 checks
wicky_wawa bets $12
bjp1000 calls $12

TURN

king of clubs 3 of clubs jack of clubs 10 of hearts
bjp1000 checks
wicky_wawa bets $24
bjp1000 raises to $156, and is capped
wicky_wawa has 15 seconds left to act
wicky_wawa calls $132, and is capped
bjp1000 shows 10 of diamonds king of spades
wicky_wawa shows ace of clubs ace of diamonds

RIVER

king of clubs 3 of clubs jack of clubs 10 of hearts 5 of clubs
bjp1000 shows two pair, Kings and Tens
wicky_wawa shows a flush, Ace high
wicky_wawa wins the pot ($360) with a flush, Ace high

SUMMARY


Total pot $363 | Rake $3
Board: king of clubs 3 of clubs jack of clubs 10 of hearts 5 of clubs
Seat 1: wicky_wawa showed ace of clubs ace of diamonds and won ($360) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 2: craz6dragon (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Goodfella_84 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: bjp1000 (big blind) showed 10 of diamonds king of spades and lost with two pair, Kings and Tens
Seat 5: JackDanielsPT didn't bet (folded)
Three of a Kind
Three of a Kind
12 December 2009 10:36 h
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Registered at 2009-10-30
Posts: 61
i ran this on pokerstove. using possible villain hands of any suited club holding (except the board and ace, of course), AA-10 (not QQ)/10, KJo, K10o, and Q9o.....you are 24.04% win, 74.84% lose, 00.56% tie. of course, this assumes that he does not cap with only one pair (if donk, cant rule-out, i guess....but he IS a big winner over time). so my initial thought that you need to fold was mathematically correct. oops, just realized that i forgot to add the appropriate AQ and 33 holdings. that makes your % even a bit worse.
Poker Pro
Poker Pro
13 December 2009 11:10 h
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Registered at 2005-12-08
Posts: 1889
i think his range is wider than that, with at least some combo's in it, maybe even worse hands as a semi-bluff
Three of a Kind
Three of a Kind
14 December 2009 11:55 h
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Registered at 2009-10-30
Posts: 61
having won over $100k in cap games, he prob doesnt cap too often when significantly behind. i will spot you a couple combos.
Poker Pro
Poker Pro
15 December 2009 02:02 h
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NobleTruths posted
having won over $100k in cap games, he prob doesnt cap too often when significantly behind
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